Who Will Win the World Cup 2026?
Title odds for all 48 teams from our Elo-based Monte Carlo model: 20,000 simulated tournaments, re-run with every result. Argentina are the current favourites at 23%. Updated June 17, 2026.
| # | Team | Win | Final | Last 4 | Advance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ๐ฆ๐ทArgentina | 23% | 34% | 48% | 100% |
| 2 | ๐ช๐ธSpain | 16% | 27% | 39% | 94% |
| 3 | ๐ซ๐ทFrance | 16% | 26% | 41% | 100% |
| 4 | ๐ง๐ทBrazil | 7% | 13% | 26% | 94% |
| 5 | ๐ต๐นPortugal | 6% | 12% | 21% | 92% |
| 6 | ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟEngland | 5% | 11% | 22% | 91% |
| 7 | ๐ณ๐ฑNetherlands | 3% | 8% | 16% | 87% |
| 8 | ๐ฉ๐ชGermany | 3% | 8% | 16% | 100% |
| 9 | ๐บ๐ธUSA | 2% | 6% | 13% | 99% |
| 10 | ๐จ๐ดColombia | 2% | 5% | 11% | 82% |
| 11 | ๐ง๐ชBelgium | 2% | 5% | 11% | 86% |
| 12 | ๐บ๐พUruguay | 2% | 4% | 9% | 72% |
| 13 | ๐ญ๐ทCroatia | 2% | 4% | 10% | 81% |
| 14 | ๐ฒ๐ฆMorocco | 1% | 4% | 10% | 85% |
| 15 | ๐ณ๐ดNorway | 1% | 4% | 11% | 96% |
| 16 | ๐จ๐ญSwitzerland | <1% | 2% | 6% | 71% |
| 17 | ๐ฏ๐ตJapan | <1% | 2% | 6% | 76% |
| 18 | ๐ธ๐ณSenegal | <1% | 2% | 5% | 58% |
| 19 | ๐จ๐ฆCanada | <1% | 2% | 6% | 79% |
| 20 | ๐ฒ๐ฝMexico | <1% | 2% | 8% | 96% |
| 21 | ๐ฆ๐นAustria | <1% | 2% | 6% | 92% |
| 22 | ๐ฐ๐ทSouth Korea | <1% | 2% | 7% | 93% |
| 23 | ๐ธ๐ชSweden | <1% | 2% | 5% | 96% |
| 24 | ๐ช๐จEcuador | <1% | 1% | 4% | 60% |
| 25 | ๐น๐ทTรผrkiye | <1% | 1% | 3% | 48% |
| 26 | ๐จ๐ฎIvory Coast | <1% | 1% | 5% | 94% |
| 27 | ๐จ๐ฟCzechia | <1% | 1% | 4% | 55% |
| 28 | ๐ช๐ฌEgypt | <1% | 1% | 3% | 76% |
| 29 | ๐ฆ๐บAustralia | <1% | <1% | 3% | 92% |
| 30 | ๐ฎ๐ทIran | <1% | <1% | 3% | 61% |
| 31 | ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ณ๓ ฃ๓ ด๓ ฟScotland | <1% | 1% | 4% | 82% |
| 32 | ๐ฉ๐ฟAlgeria | <1% | <1% | 2% | 48% |
| 33 | ๐จ๐ฉDR Congo | <1% | <1% | 2% | 54% |
| 34 | ๐ง๐ฆBosnia and Herzegovina | <1% | <1% | 2% | 63% |
| 35 | ๐ฌ๐ญGhana | <1% | <1% | 2% | 54% |
| 36 | ๐ต๐พParaguay | <1% | <1% | <1% | 33% |
| 37 | ๐จ๐ปCape Verde | <1% | <1% | 1% | 55% |
| 38 | ๐ถ๐ฆQatar | <1% | <1% | 1% | 52% |
| 39 | ๐บ๐ฟUzbekistan | <1% | <1% | <1% | 37% |
| 40 | ๐ต๐ฆPanama | <1% | <1% | <1% | 41% |
| 41 | ๐ฟ๐ฆSouth Africa | <1% | <1% | <1% | 29% |
| 42 | ๐จ๐ผCuraรงao | <1% | <1% | <1% | 13% |
| 43 | ๐น๐ณTunisia | <1% | <1% | <1% | 17% |
| 44 | ๐ณ๐ฟNew Zealand | <1% | <1% | <1% | 38% |
| 45 | ๐ธ๐ฆSaudi Arabia | <1% | <1% | <1% | 43% |
| 46 | ๐ฏ๐ดJordan | <1% | <1% | <1% | 15% |
| 47 | ๐ญ๐นHaiti | 0% | <1% | <1% | 13% |
| 48 | ๐ฎ๐ถIraq | 0% | <1% | <1% | 11% |
How the model works
Each team carries a strength rating on the World Football Elo scale. For every match, the rating gap (plus a home-country bonus for co-hosts USA, Mexico and Canada) sets each side's expected goals, which feed a Poisson scoreline model with a draw correction to produce win, draw and loss probabilities.
We then simulate the entire tournament 20,000 times: the remaining group games, the eight-best-third-place maths, and every knockout round through the July 19 final. The share of simulations a team wins is its title probability. Results that have already happened are locked in, so the numbers shift after every matchday.
This is a statistical model for entertainment and analysis, not betting advice.